world%20events

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

US recession in 2026?

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Bitcoin Outperform Altcoins in 2026?

[RESOLVES JANUARY 31] Will the Senate majority leader and speaker of the house both be Democrats after the 2026 midterms

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Will annual inflation be 3.9% in September?

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 14?

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?

Q-Day before 2030?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will Trump finish his second term?

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?

US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 14?

West Indies Tour of India T20s: India vs West Indies

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 14?

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Bitcoin be above $150,000 at the end of 2027?

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Bitcoin be above $150,000 at the end of 2027?

If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030?

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030?

OpenAI's proof of zero free region of Riemann zeta for Re(s)>7/8 shown to be flawed before 2027?

Will we "lose public key cryptography" by EoY 2028?

Will OpenAI change its name by the end of 2026?

Will OpenAI rename to OpenSI in 2026?

Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?

Will Republicans win New York 21st congressional district in 2026?

Will Roger Marshall win the Kansas senate election by 11% or more?

Republicans win Texas governor by 6+ points?

Will there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl)

Will SpaceXSI rename itself back to SpaceXAI by end of 2026?

Bitcoin 100k before Election day?

Will a Native American be elected to the Senate in 2026?

Will PredictionMarketTrader's Combo Hit (Midterm Senate Parlay)? [Kalshi]

Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up Senate seats in 2026? [Cook Political Report]

Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up Senate seats in 2026? [Sabato's Crystal Ball]

Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?

Does AI help drug discovery?

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?

Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2027?

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?

Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Stars vs. Avalanche

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NIP - Map 1 Winner

Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Catania: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Enrico Dalla Valle

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 14?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 6% before 2027?

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?

Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Will building datacenters in the US be much more difficult by mid-2029?

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?

Mallorca: Julia Grabher vs Lidia Encheva

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in September?

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Kalmychata (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Lisbon: Polona Hercog vs Jazmin Ortenzi

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in September?

Wuhan Tennis Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li

Will annual inflation be 3.0% in September?

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in September?

Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-10-14?

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs